Organic Commodities

Rapeseed: output could be lower than expected

July 28, 2017 at 7:48 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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Fallen through acreages before harvest and hailstorms during harvest could further surprise market participants.

Rapeseed: will all be happy at end of harvest?

SOFIA. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the 20th of July 2017, farmers harvested 87% of total available acreages for harvest this season. The harvest this year was belated because of unexpected rains and later interrupted because of showers and hailstorms. Yet, the culprits this year are not so much hailstorms as are fallen through acreages because of adverse weather conditions during the Winter and early Spring.

For this year, farmers planted 186,927 ha of rapeseed to be harvested. Yet, 24,766 ha of this land fell through. The agricultural adage that an agri business is a factory without a roof under the sky reminded some farmers that they were powerless against natural forces.

Market developments

By the end of last week, an estimated collected quantity of rapeseed amounted to 399,023 mt. Last year, aggregate output stood at 509,251 mt. Moreover, today’s average yield is estimated at 2.8 mt/ha while that of last year stood at 2.97 mt/ha. This year, the final figure could go below what has already been forecasted of about 450,000 - 460,000 mt. Soon the sky will clear for the results to appear.

Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 21.07.2017)

Carry over

25,000 mt

Domestic output

339,023 mt

Domestic consumption

4,800 mt

Exports to the world

73,000 mt

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Farmers expect prices to increase quickly after the final production number has been released. Yet, prices of Ukrainian rapeseed in the region will most probably cool off any too soon added price gains. Anyhow, prices are expected to remain on the upper side.

 Rapeseed, Bulgaria

Crop

EUR/kg

rapeseed

0.360

EXW Bulgaria

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